豆粕周报：中美贸易谈判僵持，豆粕维持震荡-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. Factors such as the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations, weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the volume of imported soybeans will influence the market. The US soybean market is also in a state of oscillation, with the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and weather conditions being the main drivers of short - and medium - term trends [10][34]. - The soybean market will also remain range - bound. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [11][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate with a possibility of escalation, which is negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the harvest situation, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the volume of imported soybeans [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decline in pig - farming profits in China has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. Although the demand for soybean meal increased from August to September, the market will still oscillate due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely Positive Factors: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Likely Negative Factors: The high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Likely Positive Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - Likely Negative Factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Weather: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, with a neutral or bearish outlook in the short - term [9]. - Import Cost: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to oscillate weakly, with a neutral or bearish outlook due to uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean weather [9]. - Oil Mill Pressing: The demand for soybean meal is expected to decline in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has fallen from a high level. The oil mill's开机 rate is expected to decline from a high level, which is bullish [9]. - Transaction: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has declined, and market transactions are expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - Oil Mill Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills remains at a medium - high level. As the upstream开机 rate declines from a high level, the inventory is expected to fall from a high level, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - Fundamentals: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and it may return to an oscillating pattern in the short - term [10]. - Basis: The spot price is 2900 (East China), with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [10]. - Expectation: The soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short - term, influenced by US soybeans [10]. Soybeans - Fundamentals: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean market is also oscillating downward, and it will be affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the volume of imported soybeans in the short - term [11]. - Basis: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year, which is bearish [11]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [11]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [11]. - Expectation: The soybean market will maintain a range - bound pattern, affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - Options Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - Options Strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.8 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - US Soybean Market: The September USDA report had little impact. The US soybean market is oscillating due to the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The bumper harvest of US soybeans is gradually being realized, suppressing the market outlook [34]. - Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain: The volume of imported soybeans in October is expected to decline from a high level. The soybean inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline from a high level. The oil mill's pressing volume has decreased, and the unexecuted contracts have continued to decline [37][38][42]. - Downstream Demand: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term. The pig - farming industry is in a state where the profit has declined, and the inventory of pigs is increasing slightly, while the inventory of sows is decreasing slightly [56]. 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market has bottomed out and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a technical rebound stage but with limited upward space, and it will return to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is maintaining a range - bound oscillation, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators show that the market is in a technical consolidation stage, and whether it will rebound or adjust downward remains to be seen [69].