大越期货沥青期货周报-20251013

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,433 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,328 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.05%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 11 - contract of asphalt declined this week, opening at 3,433 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 3,328 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 3.05% weekly drop [5]. - Supply Side: In June 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise production was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [5]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [6]. - Inventory Side: The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the in - plant inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48%; the diluted asphalt inventory at ports was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69%. Social inventory continued to decline, in - plant inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend. Based on the price and volume chart, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [104][105].