橡胶：暂时观望

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the rubber industry [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. There is a risk of a new trade war between China and the US, and it is expected that prices will open lower on Monday. Given the intensified macro risks, investors are advised to wait and see [2][3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 had an opening price of 15,180, a high of 15,480, a low of 15,150, and a closing price of 15,315, with a gain of 1.9%. NR2511 opened at 12,200, reached a high of 12,520, a low of 12,200, and closed at 12,350, up 2.07%. BR2511 opened at 1,1145, had a high of 1,1335, a low of 1,1120, and closed at 1,1220, up 1.08%. During the holiday, the overseas market was relatively flat with a price rebound, but due to the risk of a new China-US trade war over the weekend, rubber prices fell close to the previous low [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state-owned full latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,130 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton from before the holiday. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from before the holiday [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 3,729 tons to 180,630 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,420 tons to 144,390 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week as futures prices rose while spot prices fell [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet and cup lump prices rising and latex prices falling. Tire enterprise operating rates remained low due to the holiday, and among tire enterprise inventories, semi-steel tire inventories decreased while all-steel tire inventories remained unchanged. Given the flat overseas market performance during the holiday and the incomplete recovery of the natural rubber fundamentals due to the holiday, along with the risk of a new China-US trade war, investors are advised to wait and see [7]