建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of geopolitical factors and iron ore industry policy factors, coal and coke futures show resistance during the oscillatory rebound but generally tend to rebound. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the iron ore spot market supply, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - large - scale asset allocation [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On October 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of coke futures continued to oscillate and recover, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures briefly rose and then gave back the day's gains. The closing price of J2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 16,954 lots and a position of 41,385 lots, a decrease of 499 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1161 yuan/ton, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 700,936 lots and a position of 596,453 lots, an increase of 27,482 lots [5]. - The long - short comparison and deviation of the top 20 positions in the black - series futures on October 10, 2025, showed different trends. For example, RB2601 had a long - short difference of 11,708 lots with a deviation of 0.99%, and HC2601 had a long - short difference of - 12,648 lots with a deviation of - 1.30% [6]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On October 10, 2025, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions showed different trends, such as a 70 - yuan increase in Pingdingshan and a 60 - yuan decrease in Linfen [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2601 contract continued to diverge, with the J - value continuing to rise, the K - value turning up, and the D - value continuing to decline. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2601 contract also continued to diverge, with the J - value and K - value continuing to rise and the D - value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2601 contract turned slightly narrower, while that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to expand slightly [8]. 3.3 Future Outlook - In terms of news, on October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements on export controls. On October 10, the Ministry of Transport announced the collection of special port fees for US ships. There were also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore by Sinomine Resource Group. The iron ore futures rebounded after the long holiday, and whether the rebound can continue depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the recovery of steel terminal demand [9]. - Fundamentally, for coke, the output of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks since reaching a new high in late May, and the output of steel mills has increased but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, steel mill inventory has started to reduce after reaching a new high since late May, and coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on October 1. For coking coal, from January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. The inventory of mine clean coal and raw coal has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has dropped significantly from a new high since the end of January, steel mill inventory has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June, and port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With coking plants reducing inventory after replenishment, the prices of major coking coal spot markets continued to be strong [10]. 3.4 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding operators to price reasonably and promoting industry self - regulation [12]. - On October 10, 2025, the Ministry of Transport announced the collection of special port fees for US ships starting from October 14, 2025 [13]. - Reuters reported that on October 9, the Trump administration proposed to ban Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace on flights to and from the US. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested referring to relevant departments and pointed out that the US restrictions were not conducive to personnel exchanges between the two countries [13]. - On October 9, 2025, Trump reiterated the "America First" trade policy at a White House cabinet meeting, threatening to stop importing a large number of goods from China [13]. - Jizhong Energy completed the industrial and commercial change registration for the acquisition of a 49% stake in Jingneng Xilin Gol Energy Co., Ltd. [13]. - Suneng Co., Ltd. stated at a performance briefing that its operating income in the first half of the year was 5.573 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan. The performance was under pressure compared with the same period last year due to the impact of the loose coal market supply and demand and the large decline in coal prices [13]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the Taiyuan Railway Administration of China Railway transported 15.08 million tons of coal to ensure power supply [13]. - Kpler ship tracking data showed that Australia's coal exports in September 2025 were 31.4188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.63% and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The cumulative exports from January to September were 254 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91% [13]. - On September 29, 2025, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry launched an anti - dumping investigation into 300 - series and 400 - series stainless - steel cold - rolled flat products originating from or imported from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam [14]. - From January to September 2025, Mongolia's iron ore exports totaled 6.4851 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.74%, and the export value was 465 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.20% [14]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot - metal production, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the clean coal and raw coal inventory of sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal with the January contract [16][17][18][28][29][30].