《农产品》日报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysia's palm oil futures may face further downward pressure due to potential slowdown in export growth and concerns about increased production in October. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are likely to continue to decline. Overall, a cautious and bearish view is maintained [1]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 17 cents per pound. After the National Day holiday, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [2]. Corn - During the period of new corn's concentrated market entry, due to the pressure of phased supply, corn will maintain a weak pattern [3]. Cotton - In the medium term, cotton prices will face pressure when they rise [6]. Meal - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected shortage in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the price of M2601. If the purchase of US soybeans continues to be halted, the M2601 contract has support in the range of 2900 - 2950, where long positions can be considered [8]. Pork - In the short term, there are signs of second - fattening and reluctance to sell, but in the medium and long term, the supply pressure of pork will continue to be released, and pig prices are not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market [10][11]. Eggs - This week, the egg market is expected to decline in an oscillating manner, with no obvious positive support in the short term [14]. Summary by Category Fats and Oils - Soybean Oil: On October 10, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 fell by 0.36% to 8302 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.79% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9460 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 fell by 1.38% to 9438 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 120% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 10330 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 fell by 1.82% to 10061 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 33.17% [1]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with the palm oil's 01 - 05 spread dropping by 18.10% [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: On October 10, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.58% to 5496 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar's main contract fell by 0.92% to 16.10 cents per pound [2]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5800 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.17% to 5810 yuan/ton [2]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 12.87% to 1000 million tons [2]. Corn - Corn: On October 10, the price of corn 2511 decreased by 0.61% to 2125 yuan/ton, and the import profit decreased by 2.58% to 377 yuan/ton [3]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.08% to 2432 yuan/ton, and the profit of Shandong's starch increased by 40% to 35 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - Futures Market: On October 10, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.22% to 13375 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton's main contract decreased by 1.07% to 63.77 cents per pound [6]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.12% to 14630 yuan/ton [6]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.1% to 102.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 40% to 7 million tons [6]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.37% to 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of M2601 increased by 2000% [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2460 yuan/ton, and the basis of RM2601 remained unchanged [8]. - Soybean: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract of soybean No. 1 remained unchanged [8]. Pork - Futures Market: On October 10, the price of the main contract of live pigs decreased by 2.37% to 11320 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 0.21% to 12140 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in various regions all decreased, with the price in Henan dropping to 11200 yuan/ton [10]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.18% to 154455, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30% to - 152 yuan per head [10]. Eggs - Futures Market: On October 10, the price of the 11 - contract of eggs decreased by 2.26% to 2806 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 2.65% to 3160 yuan/500KG [13]. - Spot Market: The egg price in the production area decreased by 3.02% to 2.87 yuan per catty, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.88% to 4.46 yuan per catty [13]. - Industry Situation: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.70% to 2.83, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% to 2.12 yuan per bird [13].