大越期货尿素早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. The daily production and operating rate are slightly declining but still at a relatively high level, and enterprise inventories are accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and although the third - batch of export quotas has been released, the support for domestic prices is limited. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, enterprise inventories are accumulating, and demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors is weak. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, but the third - batch of quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 113, and the premium/discount ratio is 6.6%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 168.6 million tons (+16.1), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to be weak and volatile. International urea prices are strong, but the support for domestic prices is limited. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are high operating and daily production levels and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1720 (0), and the FOB China price is 3099 [6]. - Futures: The price of the UR01 contract is 1597 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1666 (-11), and the UR09 contract is 1702 (1). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 113, and the premium/discount ratio is 6.6% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 168.6 million tons (+16.1), including 108.6 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 60 million tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also changed accordingly. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5%, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5% [9].