Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices showed minor fluctuations after the National Day holiday. The expected surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season has increased, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The price is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices after the National Day holiday showed minor fluctuations. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - Overnight, the price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The expectation of typhoon - affecting the sugar production in Guangxi has subsided, and the price has started to fluctuate weakly again. The SR2601 contract is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 1.15 million tons. The reasons for the surplus mainly include improved crop harvests in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand [35]. - Domestic sugar market: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production in China is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.
白糖周报（10.9-10.10）-20251013
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-13 06:29