棉花周报（10.9-10.10）-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, cotton prices showed a mild and slightly fluctuating trend. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main contract 01 has a weak rebound, and there is an expectation of further bottom - hunting. It is recommended to short on rallies [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days. Cotton prices fluctuated slightly. The expected national cotton output is 722 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.5 million tons and consumption is 25.5 million tons; the USDA September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: A reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content provided for "Today's Focus" in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production and consumption forecast for 2025/26 shows that the total production is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons, and total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. The ending inventory is 15.925 million tons [10]. - The ICAC's global cotton supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 shows that the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's data for the 2025/26 shows that the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content provided for "Position Data" in the report.