大越期货燃料油周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. Fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week [5]. - The east - west arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur low - sulfur fuel oil has been mostly closed in recent weeks, but the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil has continued to increase. Asian refinery maintenance in autumn has not significantly tightened local supply, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply. Stable supply and weak downstream marine fuel demand will keep Singapore's inventory at a high level in the short term, and the market will be weak [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm, partly due to relatively stable downstream marine fuel activities. Although the current high - sulfur fuel oil marine fuel demand remains stable, as the peak summer electricity demand season in the Middle East fades, the inflow of goods from the region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied in the next few weeks. With the threat of a new round of tariff war from the US against China and no further escalation of sanctions on Russian energy exports, fuel oil will run weakly overall. For operation, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton range, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - long View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is well - supplied and weak, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is firm but may face increased supply in the future. Overall, fuel oil runs weakly, and specific operating ranges are given [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,893 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,808 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan or 2.96%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,442 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,331 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan or 3.24% [6]. - Spot Prices: For various fuel oil products in different regions such as Zhoushan and Singapore, prices have all declined. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 484.00 to 473.00, down 11.00 or 2.27% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Consumption Data: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of fuel oil in Shandong from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated. For example, on October 8, it was 2,061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [15].