大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251013

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for both LLDPE and PP is expected to be weak and volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks are the main factors contributing to this trend. Additionally, the high inventory and additional production capacity in the fourth quarter also add pressure to the market [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil has limited support for the polyolefin cost. The threat of a 100% tariff increase by Trump on October 10 has raised the possibility of an escalation of the Sino - US trade dispute, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance has decreased, production load has slightly increased, and production has risen. The agricultural film industry is operating stably, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 43, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000 tons), considered neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4] - Factors: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The decline in oil prices due to trade risks, the addition of new production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa, sufficient supply of goods, good performance of the plastic weaving industry supported by the peak season, and weak demand for pipes. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [6] - Factors: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the price of the 01 contract is 7037 (-40); the current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the price of the 01 contract is 6722 (-23) [4][6][8] - Inventory Data: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12,795 (+66), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons; the PP warehouse receipt is 13,970 (-60), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene showed an upward trend, and the import dependence also decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,906 [15]