Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient immediate supply, but the spot spread of 380 CST high - sulfur fuel oil has turned positive because of the increased buying interest in November - shipped cargoes. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventories are expected to remain high in the rest of this month and November. The market is currently neutral with the fuel oil following the movement of oil prices as there are no obvious fundamental highlights. FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2780, and LU2511 in the range of 3200 - 3280 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral. The potential risks include the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks. There are concerns that sanctions against Russia may be tightened and Russia's fuel export restrictions may be extended, while the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous FU主力合约期货 price was 2813, the current price is 2803, a decrease of 10 or 0.36%. The previous LU主力合约期货 price was 3329, the current price is 3332, an increase of 3 or 0.09%. The previous FU基差 was 58, the current is 37, a decrease of 21 or 36.20%. The previous LU基差 was 27, the current is 24, a decrease of 3 or 10.49% [5]. - The previous price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel was 484.00, the current is 473.00, a decrease of 11.00 or 2.27%. The previous price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel was 503.00, the current is 490.00, a decrease of 13.00 or 2.58%. The previous price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel was 393.22, the current is 382.29, a decrease of 10.93 or 2.78%. The previous price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel was 462.50, the current is 452.50, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.16%. The previous price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel was 369.76, the current is 359.46, a decrease of 10.30 or 2.79%. The previous price of Singapore diesel was 649.46, the current is 639.81, a decrease of 9.64 or 1.48% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be tightened; Russia's fuel export restrictions may be extended [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient immediate supply. The spot spread of 380 CST high - sulfur fuel oil has turned positive because of the increased buying interest in November - shipped cargoes. A Singapore trader said that high - sulfur fuel oil inventories in Singapore are expected to remain high in the rest of this month and November, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 37 yuan/ton at 382.29 dollars/ton, and the basis of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton at 452.5 dollars/ton. The spot is at par with the futures, showing a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Main positions: The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The main positions of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed from long to short, also showing a bearish trend [3]. 5. Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the price changes of different fuel types in the daily prompt section. 6. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 30 was 2027.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels; on August 20, it was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; on August 27, it was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels; on September 3, it was 2330.9 million barrels, an increase of 142 million barrels; on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels; on September 17, it was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels; on September 24, it was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels; on October 1, it was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels; on October 8, it was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels [8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20251013
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-13 06:48