大越期货原油早报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's softened stance towards China has somewhat alleviated market concerns, leading to a partial recovery in oil prices on Monday morning. However, long - term confrontation persists. With continuous supply growth and ongoing demand - side concerns, oil prices face significant pressure. The current smooth progress of the Israel - Palestine peace talks means a lack of short - term geopolitical stimuli, and oil prices are expected to trend weakly. Short - term, the price is expected to range between 445 - 455, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Crude Oil 2511: - Technical Analysis: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - Fundamentals: Trump's statements on China and Ukraine have caused significant market expectation fluctuations, with a neutral impact [3]. - Basis: On October 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.60 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.39 per barrel, with a basis of $19.98 per barrel, showing a spot premium over futures, a bullish sign [3]. - Inventory: From the week ending October 3, API and EIA crude inventories increased more than expected, while Cushing area inventory decreased. As of October 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, a bearish factor [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, WTI crude main position was long and increasing; as of October 7, Brent crude main position was long but decreasing, a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trade and Politics: Trump announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese imports and new export controls on key software in response to China's expanded rare - earth export controls. The FCC has removed millions of Chinese electronic products from major US online retail platforms [5]. - Monetary Policy: St. Louis Fed President Moussalem believes there may be one more rate cut, but warns of inflation risks. Fed Governor Waller thinks weak employment data supports further rate cuts [5]. - Geopolitics: Yemen's Houthi rebels said they would stop attacking Israeli - related ships in the Red Sea if Israel adheres to the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - Bearish: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude all declined, with WTI having the largest decline of 4.24% [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude all decreased, with WTI and UK Brent Dtd having relatively large declines [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA crude inventories increased in the week ending October 3, while Cushing area inventory decreased [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude: As of September 23, the net long position increased by 4,249 [17]. - Brent Crude: As of October 7, the net long position decreased by 61,713 [19].