原油月评：地缘降温供给趋宽，油价后续难有修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is high on the bearish side [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since September, oil prices have remained stable, but since October, they have dropped significantly due to changes in the macro - atmosphere and production - increase policies. It is expected that oil prices will be difficult to recover significantly this month. The overall fundamentals, financial attributes, and political attributes are all unfavorable for oil prices, so in the short term, oil prices may continue to operate weakly [12][85] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since September, oil prices have been stable overall. Although they once exceeded 500 yuan in the first half, they have dropped significantly since October under the influence of macro - atmosphere changes and production - increase policies. It is expected that oil prices will be difficult to recover significantly this month. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 420 - 470 yuan/barrel, and consider high - selling and low - buying within the range. Aggressive investors can consider shorting on rallies [12] 3.2 Market Review - In September, oil prices rebounded to some extent but with limited fluctuations and basically remained within the range. In October, there was an obvious correction due to the continuous widening of supply, the cooling of the geopolitical situation, and the macro - economic atmosphere, which jointly suppressed oil prices [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - factors - The US government shutdown has postponed CPI data, and prices are still rising. Non - farm data is postponed, and employment expectations are pessimistic. The market still bets on a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the next meeting. The WTO has significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026. The cease - fire in the Middle East has led to a cooling of geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [23][32][35] 3.3.2 Supply - side - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day again. However, many institutions believe the actual increase may be between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels per day. There are differences in the stances of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Attention should be paid to the compensatory production cuts of Iran and Iraq and the policy of the November 2nd meeting. US oil production continues to increase [39][50][52] 3.3.3 Demand - side - Consumption expectations are gradually weakening. Gasoline production is gradually decreasing, while diesel and fuel production are gradually recovering. Manufacturing performance remains sluggish, and European manufacturing is also contracting. The market is shifting from gasoline to diesel production [55][67][69] 3.3.4 Inventory - side - Crude oil inventory accumulation has exceeded market expectations, which suppresses the expectation of demand recovery and drags down oil prices. Gasoline and refined oil inventory declines are mainly due to the decline in US refinery production, and the overall situation may put more pressure on oil prices [76][79] 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In September, oil prices fluctuated within a certain range, but after the National Day holiday, they opened lower and continued to fall. The long - term widening of supply, weak consumption, and inventory accumulation in the fundamentals will continue to drag down oil prices. The financial atmosphere is not conducive to oil price recovery, and geopolitical fluctuations have slowed down. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices are difficult to rebound significantly and will continue to operate weakly [85]