大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 73,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 72,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.40%. It is expected that next week, the supply side production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,064 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase; lithium mica production was 2,695 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; salt lake production was 2,904 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week increase; and recycling production was 1,972 tons, a 2.49% week - on - week increase [4]. - Demand: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% month - on - month increase. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The export volume in September was 410 tons, a 11.11% month - on - month increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 20.97% month - on - month increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and the production of power and energy - storage batteries also showed certain trends, and the terminal inventory has been reduced, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory is 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory is 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Lithium Ore: The report presents the price trends of lithium ore, the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, the import volume of lithium concentrate, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore. There is also a supply - demand balance table for domestic lithium ore, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025 [15][18]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: It shows the weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials), the monthly production by grade and raw material, the monthly production capacity, and the monthly import volume. There is also a supply - demand balance table for lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 [21][26]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide. A supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 is also provided [29][31]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: It analyzes the cost and profit of various lithium compounds, including the cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates, the cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene processing, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the cost and profit of recycling lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate [34][39]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventories by source [41]. - Demand - Lithium Battery: The report presents the price trends, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries [45][47]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and a supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors from September 2024 to September 2025 [50][53]. - Demand - Ternary Material: The report shows the price, cost, profit, weekly operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: It presents the price, cost, profit, capacity, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [60][63]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: It shows the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The report provides the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract from September to October, as well as the moving average data. It is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].