大越期货原油周报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with prices dropping significantly at the end of the week due to risk events. The prices of NYMEX WTI, Brent, and Shanghai crude oil futures all declined, with weekly drops of 4.17%, 3.53%, and 7.23% respectively. The current fundamental environment of the crude oil market is mainly bearish, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [5]. - In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the range of 430 - 465, and take a wait - and - see approach for long - term investment [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price movements: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.84 per barrel, down 4.17% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.09 per barrel, down 3.53% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 445 yuan per barrel, down 7.23% for the week [5]. - Supply: OPEC+ will increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from November. The market's concern about potential supply surplus persists, and the increase is in line with October, lower than expected [5]. - Demand: The uncertainty of US - China trade relations and the US government shutdown have increased concerns on the demand side. The threat of "large - scale tariff hikes" on Chinese imports by Trump has further increased the downward pressure on oil prices [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of Brent crude oil futures speculators decreased by 61,713 contracts to 147,400 contracts in the week of October 7. The net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of the week of September 23. The data of WTI was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the data of Brent reflected extremely pessimistic market expectations for the future [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi Group reported that some clients doubt whether the $60 per barrel price floor of Brent crude oil can trigger supply - demand reactions. Some participants expect a more gentle price correction, and there is inventory accumulation in some regions. The slowdown of non - OPEC+ production growth, OPEC+'s policy flexibility, and geopolitical risks are factors affecting price trends [6]. - Bloomberg reported that the benchmark oil price has dropped by about 10% this year, mainly due to the expected supply surplus after OPEC+ gradually cancels production cuts. Currently, the global seaborne crude oil transportation volume is as high as 1.2 billion barrels, the highest level since at least 2016. Asia has been absorbing most of the estimated surplus supply [6]. - The US federal government has been in a "shutdown" for 11 days, and about 4,200 employees in multiple departments are affected. The US Government Employees Union has filed a lawsuit [6]. - A cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip came into effect at noon on the 10th local time [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical factors: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas weakens the geopolitical premium and suppresses the willingness to go long. Trump's remarks on China's tariff issues and the escalation of disputes between the two countries have increased concerns about crude oil demand. The US government shutdown has further intensified these concerns. OPEC+ has not shown concern about the recent sharp drop in oil prices, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Operational suggestions: Short - term operation within the range of 430 - 465, long - term wait - and - see [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various types of crude oil such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all declined last week, with the decline ranging from 0.57% to 2.12% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels on October 3; the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.261 million barrels on October 3 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - ICE fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of ICE crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts [21].