瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic agricultural demand is scattered, with a slight increase in local demand but no obvious improvement overall; industrial demand is stable, and the autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizers is in the later stage, with demand in most parts of North China weakening, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers will continue to decline slightly [2] - India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but due to the approaching end of China's export window period and the unclear export policy, the impact of this round of Indian tenders on the domestic urea market needs continuous tracking [2] - The rigid demand progress is still tepid, and domestic enterprises still face high inventory pressure. The short - term fluctuation range of the UR2601 contract is expected to be between 1,580 and 1,630 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,610 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,5954 [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 326,154 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 12,710; the net position of the top 20 is - 45,149 [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 6,917, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,600 yuan/ton, 1,530 yuan/ton, 1,550 yuan/ton, 1,530 yuan/ton, and 1,560 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0, - 10, - 10, - 20, and - 10 [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 33 [2] - FOB Baltic is 370 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10; FOB China's main port is 385 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 41.5 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.8 tons; enterprise inventory is 144.39 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.22 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08%; the daily urea output is 200,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 80 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23; the monthly urea output in September 2025 is 5,928,680 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 25.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.96%; the melamine operating rate is 65.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.95% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 177 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 9; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 31 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 109.21 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 144.39 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.22 tons and a week - on - week growth rate of 17.23%. The inventory of urea enterprises has risen to a high level this cycle [2] - As of October 9, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 41.5 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.8 tons and a week - on - week decline rate of 8.39%. The departure speed of port goods has accelerated this cycle [2] - In September 2025, China's urea output is 5.7477 million tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period. There are many enterprises planning to overhaul this month, and the output will continue to decline [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]