Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 13, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,146.0, down 1.63%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. With the 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee scheduled from October 20 - 23 in Beijing, during the National Day, some regional coal mines had maintenance shutdowns, leading to a slight decline in production, an increase in mine - end inventory, a continuous decline in the cumulative import growth rate for three months, and a continuous three - week increase in inventory with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 13, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,642.5, down 1.14%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. On the macro - front, on the evening of October 12, US Vice - President Vance signaled some easing regarding Trump's latest tariff threats, saying that Trump was willing to have rational negotiations with China. Fundamentally, in terms of demand, the current hot metal output is 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons, with hot metal output in a high - level oscillation. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 9 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1,146.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00; J main contract closing price was 1,642.50 yuan/ton, down 24.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest was 800,960.00 lots, down 8,116.00; J futures contract open interest was 49,973.00 lots, up 626.00 [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 88,875.00 lots, up 16,441.00; net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 4,185.00 lots, up 103.00 [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 96.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 152.00 yuan/ton, down 0.50 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 200.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 2,190.00, up 40.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis was 324.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00; J main contract basis was 77.50 yuan/ton, up 24.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal price was 1,028.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot price (CFR) was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal price was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal price was 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal price was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal output was 25.70 million tons, down 1.10; their clean coal inventory was 280.20 million tons, down 22.60 [2]. - 314 independent coal washing plants' capacity utilization rate was 0.35%, down 0.02; raw coal output was 39,049.70 million tons, up 951.00 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports were 4,600.30 million tons, up 326.30; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw coal output was 183.90, down 10.30 [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory was 507.47 million tons, up 5.00; 18 ports' coke inventory was 252.59 million tons, down 4.00 [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory was 959.06 million tons, down 78.65; their coke inventory was 63.84 million tons, up 1.53 [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 781.13 million tons, down 6.93; their coke inventory was 650.82 million tons, down 12.58 [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' available coking coal days were 12.66 days, down 0.07; 247 steel mills' available coke days were 11.42 days, down 0.18 [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports were 1,016.22 million tons, up 55.50; coke and semi - coke exports were 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 [2]. - Coking coal output was 3,696.86 million tons, down 392.52; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - Independent coking plants' average profit per ton of coke was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 43.00; coke output was 4,259.70 million tons, up 74.20 [2]. Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.25%, down 0.02; their blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10 [2]. - Crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 [2]. Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that export controls are not a ban, and applications that meet regulations will be approved, and the impact on the supply chain is limited [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to counter - measures against the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and the Ministry of Transport will charge a special port fee for US ships [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an anti - monopoly investigation into Qualcomm [2]. - The annual power consumption of global data centers accounts for over 3% of the world's total, and it is expected to reach 11% - 17% by 2030, which may impact the power supply [2].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251013
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:05