沪铜产业日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the supply of copper ore has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, smelter production capacity is expected to be limited, and domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the double festivals, but the purchase intention in the spot market is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bar has slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 790 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,596 dollars/ton, an increase of 78 dollars. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract decreased by 14,285 hands to 201,830 hands. The inventory of LME copper decreased by 75 tons to 139,400 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 75 tons to 8,350 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 32,890 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,635 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,605 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 31.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.29 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, an increase of 19.92 million tons. The production of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, an increase of 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,380 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,080 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan. The processing fee of crude copper in the south increased by 200 yuan to 1,000 yuan/ton, and in the north, it remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 500 yuan to 59,590 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 850 yuan to 73,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper increased by 30 yuan to 510 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 222.19 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, an increase of 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits decreased by 438,933.60 million pieces to 4,250,287.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper increased by 0.49 percentage points to 21.39%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.26 percentage points to 15.92%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0035 percentage points to 21.67%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options increased by 0.03 to 1.35 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year but were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants thought further policy easing might be appropriate, but most also emphasized the upside risk of inflation expectations. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's plan to impose a 100% tariff on China, stating that it would take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.239 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%, with a penetration rate of 58.5%. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index in September was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The University of Michigan survey showed that the preliminary consumer confidence index in the US in October decreased slightly to 55. The China Automobile Dealers Association expected the car sales in October to exceed those in September [2].