尿素产业链周报-20251013

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - October 12, 2025 [2] Report Author and Reviewer - Author: Liu Chenrui Z0017093 [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - High daily production combined with inventory accumulation, while the recovery of agricultural and industrial demand is slow, so the short - term market will continue to fluctuate weakly [5] Fundamental Points - Fixed - bed urea's full cost is 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, approaching the spot price in the delivery area, and the cost - side support margin is strengthening [4] - Port inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 415,000 tons compared with the previous week, and accelerated export shipments alleviated some pressure [4] - Total enterprise inventory reached 1.4439 million tons, a sharp increase of 17.23% compared with the previous week, hitting a five - year high and suppressing prices [4] - Agricultural sowing was postponed due to rainfall, the compound fertilizer operating rate dropped to 38%, the melamine operating rate was at a low level, and industrial demand was sluggish [4] Data Indicators Inventory - China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, urea inventory (port + inland) data are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9] Futures - Urea futures main contract trading volume, open interest, total number of warehouse receipts, and total valid warehouse receipt forecasts are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [10][11][12] Price - Market prices, basis, and price differences of small and large urea particles in Henan and Shandong, as well as seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [17][20][23] Production - Production costs and profits of fixed - bed, natural - gas, and coal - water slurry gasification urea production, as well as urea production enterprise backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, and total daily output are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [28][30][33] Compound Fertilizer - Compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, inventory, Shandong production cost, and production gross profit are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [38][39][40] Others - Middle East small - particle FOB price, Chinese small - particle FOB price, thermal coal spot price, and thermal coal port inventory are presented in the form of charts from 2021 - 2025 [41][42][43]