贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The continuous push of safe - haven demand, central bank gold - buying trends, and monetary policy easing expectations have strengthened the medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals prices [3]. - The copper price is caught between the strong expectation of supply shortage and the weak expectation of tariff policy, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations in futures prices [16]. - Macroeconomic policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai Aluminum. The price has been affected by factors such as employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [35]. - The fundamentals of zinc have not improved. Although the zinc price has risen, the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is obvious [56]. - The nickel price is mainly influenced by the situation of the Indonesian nickel ore market. The downstream of the new energy sector has a good demand, and the stainless steel market has some positive factors, but is also affected by tariff uncertainties [69]. - Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: Fed rate - cut expectations, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying trends are driving up precious metals prices. The gold ETF holdings have rebounded [3]. - Price Charts: Various price charts, including SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and gold - related spreads, are provided [4][10][12] Copper - Price Outlook: The copper price is in a high - level fluctuation due to the tug - of - war between supply and policy expectations. Further upward breakthrough may require the support of rate - cut expectations and domestic policies [16]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory data are presented [17][22][33] Aluminum - Price Influencing Factors: Macroeconomic policies, employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions are affecting the aluminum price. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [35]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are provided [36][44][50] Zinc - Price Outlook: The zinc price has risen, but the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. The import - export situation is also a factor [56]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [57][63][66] Nickel - Price Influencing Factors: The Indonesian nickel ore market, new energy demand, and stainless steel market trends are influencing the nickel price. Tariff uncertainties also have an impact [69]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, and downstream profit data are provided [70][76][80] Tin - Price Outlook: Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current tin futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [85][88][93] Lithium Carbonate - Price Outlook: Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [99][103][107] Silicon - Price Outlook: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. - Price and Inventory Data: Current industrial silicon and polysilicon spot prices, production data, and inventory data are presented [110][116][123]