公募基金权益指数跟踪周报（2025.09.29-2025.10.10）：关税风波再起，后续如何应对？-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the two trading days before and after the double festivals (2025.09.29 - 2025.10.10), the market once reached a new high, with upstream resource products leading the rise, and lithium batteries, steel, and military industries taking turns to perform. However, the capital support for the pre - holiday rebound was weaker than before, and the market quickly declined on Friday after a brief post - holiday rebound. Some funds saw the decline as an opportunity to increase positions [11]. - The resurgence of the tariff issue is a continuation of the global tariff war since April. Although the current valuation of the equity market is significantly higher than in April, China's "double - loose" policy is clear, and investors have more experience in dealing with such situations [11]. - The market under the current friction may mainly involve profit - taking of the booming assets since the third quarter. If a style switch occurs, the market's development path depends on specific triggering factors [13]. - The essence of the current upstream resource stock market represented by non - ferrous metals is the switch of the valuation logic of resource stocks from the cycle to DCF with higher cash - flow visibility under the background of supply constraints and geopolitical instability. This logic will continue as long as commodity prices do not continuously decline [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation - Equity Market Review and Observation - From 2025.09.29 to 2025.10.10, the market reached a new high, with upstream resource products leading. The pre - holiday rebound lacked capital support, and the market declined on Friday after a brief post - holiday rebound. When the market tumbled last Friday, there were net purchases of CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market ETFs [11]. - On the evening of October 10, 2025, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and cancel the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders, causing a sharp decline in risk assets. This trade conflict is a continuation of the global tariff war since April, and the conflict may escalate and spread to other fields [11]. - The current valuation of the equity market is higher than in April, but China's "double - loose" policy is clear, and investors have more experience in dealing with such situations [11]. - In the third quarter, the market's structural market was extreme, with technology innovation sectors rising significantly and pro - cyclical assets performing poorly. The market's ability to continue to rise depends on whether high - valuation hot sectors can maintain their upward momentum and whether low - valuation traditional pro - cyclical sectors can improve their fundamentals [12]. - The market under the current friction may mainly involve profit - taking of booming assets. If a style switch occurs, the development path depends on specific factors such as economic policies, the slowdown of booming industries, or geopolitical factors [13]. - The demand for energy metals is increasing, and the supply of strategic minor metals is restricted by anti - globalization. The valuation logic of upstream resource stocks represented by non - ferrous metals has switched from the cycle to DCF, and this logic will continue as long as commodity prices do not continuously decline [13]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking - Performance Statistics - From 2025.10.09 to 2025.10.10, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 1.63%, the Value Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 0.09%, the Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.13%, the Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.63%, the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.66%, the Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 0.93%, the Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.63%, the High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 4.56%, and the Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 1.42% [6][14]. - Since its establishment, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index has recorded an excess return of 13.38%, the Value Stock Fund Preferred Index 4.80%, the Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index 8.75%, the Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index 13.56%, the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index 19.67%, the Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index 23.42%, the Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index 20.72%, the High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - 5.99%, and the Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - 1.99% [6]. - Index Positioning and Benchmarks - Active Stock Fund Preferred Index: 15 funds are selected each period and equally weighted. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Index (930980.CSI) [15]. - Value Stock Fund Preferred Index: It includes deep - value and quality - value styles. 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [17][18]. - Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks. 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [21]. - Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [23][24]. - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Pharmaceutical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [26]. - Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Consumption Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [26][29]. - Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communication, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Technology Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [29]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the High - end Manufacturing Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [32]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, etc.). 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Cyclical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [32][33].