建信期货多晶硅日报-20251013

Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to weaken. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 48,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.43%. The open interest was 91,009 lots, with a net increase of 6,022 lots [4] Market Outlook - Polysilicon has reached a stalemate, with the price operating range between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan. Policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamental factors, but there has been no more-than-expected policy drive since September. The supply-side's expected production control is within expectations, and the implementation of new energy consumption standards has a limited effect on capacity contraction to achieve supply-demand balance. Other market rumors have not been realized. Therefore, there is no more-than-expected policy drive. The spot price is running strongly, but the supply-demand relationship has not significantly improved. The downward pressure on the price range comes from the less-than-expected policy intensity and weak fundamentals. The support level of 45,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton comes from policy support, but the upward driving force is also insufficient, and the overall trend is wide-range fluctuations [4] Market News - On October 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 8,140 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Regarding the notice on improving the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation, the power source of nearby consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the property boundary point between the user and the public power grid. The proportion of the annual self-generated electricity of new energy in the total available power generation should not be less than 60%, and the proportion in the total electricity consumption should not be less than 30%. For new projects starting from 2030, this proportion should not be less than 35%. The project should have the condition of sub-metering, and the power grid enterprise should install metering devices at the power generation, plant power consumption, grid connection, self-use, and energy storage gates to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]