菜粕周报：菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and fluctuates following the soybean meal. It is currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern due to factors such as the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, the changing demand season, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate moderately strongly. For the single - side operation of RM2601, it is expected to oscillate around 2400, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have led to a short - term reduction in exports and a tight supply in the domestic market [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's increase. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in October remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low, the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory remains flat [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate downward, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expands. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [33][37]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are also involved [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern after the positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a short - term weak oscillatory pattern. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a low level, and the MACD oscillates downward. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].