氯碱周报：SH：节日期间现货成交平淡，烧碱趋弱运行，V：供需矛盾较难解决，关注旺季需求边际变化-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, the post - holiday futures market dropped significantly due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and light spot trading. In the short term, it lacks support and is weak, but there is demand support in the medium - to - long term. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and it is expected to have limited downside space during the peak season, with attention on downstream demand [2]. - Futures strategy: Both caustic soda and PVC should be treated bearishly [2]. - Options strategy: Hold put options for both caustic soda and PVC [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - Price Trends: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as alumina production, cost changes, and market sentiment. After the holiday, there was inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking in the first week, and the market was weak [5]. - Supply: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity in Chinese enterprises with 200,000 tons or more decreased by 0.7% week - on - week from September 26 - October 2 to October 3 - 9, 2025. In September, the national caustic soda output was 3.512 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [24]. - Demand: Alumina has a large number of planned new production capacities from the end of 2024 to 2025, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29]. - Profit: The profit of caustic soda enterprises has been affected by factors such as the price of liquid chlorine and raw materials [5]. 3.2 PVC - Price Trends: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to lack of positive drivers in supply - demand and a poor commodity atmosphere. After the holiday, the market sentiment weakened, and the demand was hard to improve [61]. - Supply: In the week of the report, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. In September 2025, the domestic PVC output was 2.0308 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [83]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real - estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [90]. - Profit: The industry profit of PVC has weakened month - on - month, and the profit of calcium carbide enterprises has improved slightly [67][72]. - Inventory: The PVC inventory has increased, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [98]. - Foreign Market: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export windows to Southeast Asia and India opened [116].