建信期货国债日报-20251013

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, and treasury bond futures have fallen across the board. Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the public - fund new regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. However, it may enter a window period for risk clearance after the negatives are realized, and the bond market is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, and the optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the middle and late fourth quarter [8][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Market sentiment is weak, and treasury bond futures have fallen across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market show short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium - to - long - term. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 reported 1.7725%, down 0.5bp [8][9] - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, funds are stable and loose. There were 600 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank injected 409 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 191 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index is stable, and most short - term fund rates have declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 0.87bp to 1.3184%, the 7 - day rate dropped 8.44bp to 1.4229%, and the medium - to - long - term funds eased. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped about 8bp compared with before the holiday to 1.58% [10] - Conclusion: The bond market may still be in a difficult situation with more negatives than positives in October. After the negatives are realized, it may enter a risk - clearing window period and is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle and late fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - The front page of Economic Information Daily states that the fourth quarter is a critical period for the annual economic finish and a crucial window for policy implementation. Relevant departments will introduce a series of policies to expand effective investment, high - level opening - up, and corporate innovation. Policies such as promoting private investment and expanding the scope of encouraged foreign investment are expected to be introduced in the fourth quarter [13] - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year, the consumer market showed good growth. Domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared with the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of the national consumer - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Among them, commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively, and digital products and automobile consumption grew rapidly [13] - According to the Financial Times, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has completed the final round of interviews for the candidate of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Donald Trump will make a final decision among four top candidates: former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Christopher Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder [13] - China has made solid progress in extraterritorial jurisdiction. The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items and rare - earth - related technologies, and included 14 foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies in the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce, together with the General Administration of Customs, also issued four announcements to implement export controls on super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment, raw materials and accessories, some medium - and heavy - rare - earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on October 10, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] - Other Data: It also includes information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the weighted interest - rate changes of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase, and the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [29][33][35]