苹果产业日报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests taking a short - term bullish approach to the Apple 2601 contract [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rainy weather, the coloring of late - season Fuji apples in the production areas is slow, the quality is poor, and the market supply is limited. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, buyers are hesitant and the market is sluggish. However, the opening price of new - season late - season Fuji apples in the western production areas is generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than last year, and the concentration of the harvest is postponed to around mid - October. The trading in the sales areas is average, and the post - holiday sales are not improving. The postponed harvest may lead to a concentrated supply from different production areas, and attention should be paid to the quality of late - season Fuji apples after harvest [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 8638 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 122,813 lots, a decrease of 2,712 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4,222 lots, a decrease of 6,679 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.01, and that of Shandong apples is - 0.01. The national total cold - storage inventory of apples is 6.79 million tons, a decrease of 5.39 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 69.739 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 15.892955 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.533065 billion US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, that of bananas is 5.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons is 4.17 yuan/kg. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets is 25.67, 32, and 45.33 respectively, with an increase of 10.67 and 14.33 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.45%, a decrease of 2.1%, and that of at - the - money put options is 23.48%, a decrease of 2.06% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Affected by the rainy weather, the coloring of late - season Fuji apples in the production areas is slow, the quality is poor, and the market supply is limited. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, due to poor sales, buyers are hesitant and the local prices are stable or weak. The opening price of new - season late - season Fuji apples in the western production areas is generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than last year, and the concentrated harvest is postponed to around mid - October [2]