瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - On October 13, the silicon ferroalloy 2601 contract was reported at 5406, down 0.95%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5200, down 30 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mainly maintain normal production and deliver previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. The price of semi - coke has stabilized and rebounded, providing short - term cost support. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 13, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5746, down 0.24%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5550. Affected by factors such as intensified trade risks and the continued shutdown of the US federal government, the market experienced a "Black Friday". Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly before the holiday, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5746 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5406 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume was 574,402 hands, up 9081 hands; SF futures contract holding volume was 409,688 hands, up 30,544 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume was - 54,938 hands, up 776 hands; silicon ferroalloy top 20 net holding volume was - 27,323 hands, up 4336 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 22 yuan/ton; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 52,402, down 1639; SF warehouse receipts were 14,036, down 1004 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average was 5671.9 yuan/ton, down 22.1 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 206 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM main contract basis was - 196 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.19%, down 0.99%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 35.94%, up 0.61% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 204,225 tons, down 2205 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 115,800 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 242,500 tons, up 8700 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 66,030 tons, up 4570 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; silicon ferroalloy national steel mill inventory was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,073 tons, down 411 tons; five major steel types' silicon ferroalloy demand was 19,754.6 tons, down 111.3 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.25%, down 0.02%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10% [2]. - Crude steel output was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. Industry News - China's export control is not a ban on exports, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. The impact on the supply chain is considered limited [2]. - China has implemented counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, and the Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US ships [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into Qualcomm for suspected antitrust law violations [2]. - The annual power consumption of global data centers currently accounts for over 3% of the world's total electricity consumption, and it is expected to reach 11% - 17% by 2030, which may impact the power industry [2]. Profit and Market Pricing - Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 460 yuan/ton; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 495 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [2]. - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton; Ningxia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 250 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September manganese - silicon final price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [2].