瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased week - on - week due to the restart of two sets of equipment at Zhejiang Petrochemical and the load increase of a set of equipment in South China. The downstream operating rate mainly decreased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased month - on - month. Factory and port inventories decreased, but the inventory pressure has only fallen from a high level. Affected by the decline in pure benzene and ethylene prices, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased week - on - week, but the weak spot market of styrene led to an insignificant repair of non - integrated profits. Recently, the shutdown and maintenance of some equipment offset the impact of the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's equipment, and the output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The low downstream profit and the accumulation of finished product inventory in some industries limit the growth space of demand. The inventory pressure is relatively high and is expected to maintain a slow destocking trend. Affected by the US's statement of imposing additional tariffs on China, international oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. In the short term, EB2511 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6590 - 6760 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the trading volume was 224,685 lots, an increase of 48,758 lots; the 11 - month contract closing price was 6690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders was 412,956 lots; the net long position was - 9,664 lots, an increase of 3,732 lots; the short position was 422,620 lots, an increase of 22,190 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 1,450 lots, an increase of 650 lots. The open interest of the active contract was 318,521 lots, a decrease of 21,531 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7086 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 826 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 836 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars. The mainstream prices in the South China, Northeast, North China, and East China regions were 7086 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6700 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan), 6700 yuan/ton, and 6675 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 786 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 781 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 721 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 695.86 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was - 28 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 654 US dollars/ton. The market prices of pure benzene in the South China, East China, and North China markets were 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5720 yuan/ton (an increase of 55 yuan), and 5570 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total operating rate of styrene was 73.61%, an increase of 2.37 percentage points. The national inventory of styrene was 193,863 tons, a decrease of 9,411 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 20.19 million tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons; the trade inventory was 11.64 million tons, an increase of 0.96 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 40.74% (a decrease of 2.37 percentage points), 72.5% (an increase of 1.5 percentage points), 54.6% (a decrease of 1.7 percentage points), 20% (a decrease of 7 percentage points), and 70.05% (a decrease of 0.27 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the output of Chinese styrene plants was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37 percentage points. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 239,800 tons. As of October 9th, the inventory of styrene plants was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th, the inventory in the East China port of styrene was 196,000 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in the South China port was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59%. As of October 13th, the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2]