芳烃橡胶早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: Near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate slightly declines, polyester load increases month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and the basis remains weak. Spot processing fees stay at a low level. PX domestic start - up rate rises, overseas plants also restart, PXN expands month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remain stable while isomerization benefits weaken, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia expands. In the future, TA may have additional production cuts and production plans, but considering that polyester still shows no unexpected performance, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. - MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based start - up rate remains stable, coal - based plants restart, the overall load rises to a high level, there is some overseas maintenance, the arrival at ports increases during the holiday while the shipment is flat, and the port inventory accumulates significantly at the beginning of next week. The basis strengthens slightly, and the benefit ratio further shrinks. In the future, the existing start - up rate returns to a relatively high level, combined with the commissioning of new plants, it enters a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based costs below [5]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The start - up rate drops to 94.3% due to the maintenance of some plants and the increased load of others. The production and sales turn weaker month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable, raw material stocking decreases, the finished product inventory remains stable month - on - month, and the benefits are weak. In the future, the rate of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high - level finished product inventory. Although the spot benefits of staple fiber are acceptable, the start - up rate remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fees are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Natural Rubber: The national obvious inventory remains stable at an absolute level. The price of Thai cup rubber remains stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, the price of crude oil changes from $68.0 to $63.3, PX CFR Taiwan changes from 607 to 567, PTA internal - market spot price changes from 4590 to 4440, etc. The average daily trading basis of PTA is 2601(-70). The Yisheng New Material's 3.6 - million - ton plant increases the load [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA maintenance leads to a slight decline in the start - up rate, polyester load rises month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and the basis remains weak. Spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up rate rises, overseas plants restart, PXN expands month - on - month, disproportionation benefits are stable, isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics price difference expands [1]. - Future Outlook: TA may have additional production cuts and production plans. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected. After the valuation repair, the far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance [1]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, the price of MEG internal - market changes from 4295 to 4171, the profit changes from 148 to 80, etc. The basis of MEG spot is around 01(+70). The Fulaian 400,000 - ton plant is under maintenance [5]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic oil - based start - up rate is stable, coal - based plants restart, the overall load rises to a high level, there is some overseas maintenance, port inventory accumulates significantly, the basis strengthens slightly, and the benefit ratio shrinks [5]. - Future Outlook: With the existing high start - up rate and new plant commissioning, it enters a continuous inventory accumulation stage. After the weakening of coal - based benefits and ratios, there may be negative supply - side feedback. Attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [5]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From September 2, 2025, to October 13, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changes from 6480 to 6410, etc. The spot price is around 6355, and the market basis is around 11 + 30. Some plants like Xinjiang Jianshanli are under maintenance, and Zhejiang Huaxing increases the load. The start - up rate drops to 94.3% [5]. - Market Situation: Production and sales turn weaker month - on - month, inventory accumulates month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end is stable, raw material stocking decreases, finished product inventory is stable month - on - month, and benefits are weak [5]. - Future Outlook: The rate of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high - level finished product inventory. Although staple fiber spot benefits are acceptable, the start - up rate remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [5]. Natural Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From September 2, 2025, to October 13, 2025, the price of Shanghai full - latex changes from 14810 to 15200, etc. The national obvious inventory remains stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable [5]. - Market Situation: There is rainfall in Thailand. - Strategy: Wait and see [5]. Other Chemical Products - Styrene and Its Derivatives: From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) changes from 723 to 706, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) changes from 5860 to 5720, etc. The profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also change during this period [5].