大越期货沪铜早报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the economic climate continued to improve [2]. - The spot price is 85085, with a basis of -35, indicating a discount to the futures price [2]. - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing [2]. - With the inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis: The supply side is disturbed, while the manufacturing PMI shows improvement, considered neutral [2]. - Basis analysis: Spot price is at a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory analysis: Copper inventories show mixed trends, considered neutral [2]. - Technical analysis: The closing price and moving average indicate a bullish trend [2]. - Position analysis: The main players' net long position and increasing long positions are bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper price will remain strong due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade - war escalation [3]. Spot - Information on local middle - prices, price changes, and inventory types and quantities is provided, but specific data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the report Exchange Inventory - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the report Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [22].