沪锌期货早报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative candlestick, increasing trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reduction. The market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong area, while the trend indicator is falling, with the long - position strength decreasing and the short - position strength increasing, and the short - position strength advantage expanding. The Shanghai zinc ZN2511 is expected to fluctuate and weaken [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, which is bullish [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,260, and the basis was +5, which is neutral [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 13, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 37,475 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,030 tons to 59,614 tons compared to the previous day, which is neutral [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On October 13, in the SHFE zinc futures market, different delivery months showed price declines. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,385, the opening price was 22,450, the closing price was 22,255, with a decline of 130, and trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 669,101 lots, a decrease of 4,835 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On October 13, in the domestic main spot market, prices of various zinc - related products mostly declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Linzhou decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in Shanghai decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 25 to October 13, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 135,400 tons to 153,500 tons. Compared with September 29, it increased by 25,100 tons, and compared with October 9, it increased by 17,400 tons [5]. 7. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 13, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 59,614 tons, a decrease of 1,030 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Shanghai decreased by 100 tons to 374 tons, in Guangdong decreased by 176 tons to 34,463 tons, and in Tianjin decreased by 754 tons to 24,255 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 13, the LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a decrease of 475 tons compared to the previous day. The注销仓单 was 14,575 tons, accounting for 38.89% [8]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 13, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate was mostly 17,050 - 17,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton [9]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 13, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 100 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,470 yuan/ton, and from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,320 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October is 509,600 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 13, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions varied. For example, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in the standard area was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 13. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2511 contract on October 13, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 60,024 lots, an increase of 7,572 lots. In terms of long - position holdings, CITIC Futures ranked first with 7,036 lots, an increase of 184 lots. In terms of short - position holdings, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13,443 lots, a decrease of 1,634 lots [18].