天胶早报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is expected to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6] - Spot Price: The spot price of 23-year full latex (non-delivery) decreased on October 13th. The spot price is 14,250, and the basis is -690, showing a bearish signal. The spot price is resistant to decline [4][8][6] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year. The Qingdao area inventory has shown small changes recently [4][14][17] - Import: The import quantity has rebounded [20] - Downstream Consumption: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The basis weakened on October 13th [35]