焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-14）-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: Steel billet prices are slightly adjusted, steel trading is average, and there is a possibility of expanded maintenance due to poor profits, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises. However, high pig iron production supports coking coal demand during the peak season, with most enterprises purchasing as needed. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. - Coke: Steel mills maintain high pig iron production, and coke enterprises can maintain stable operation with current profit levels. But steel prices are volatile, pig iron production has peaked and declined, weakening the bullish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the sales pressure of steel products restricts the upward momentum of coke prices. Short - term coke prices are expected to remain stable [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some coal mines have slightly fluctuating production, but the overall supply pattern remains unchanged. Coking and steel enterprises purchase as needed, and intermediate speculative traders' purchasing enthusiasm has slowed down. New coal mine orders have decreased, and the online auction sentiment has weakened, with some coal prices falling and coal mine quotations slightly adjusted. However, the inventory pressure of coking coal in coal mines is small, remaining at a medium - low level, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 114, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position has increased [3]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Fundamentals: With the price adjustment of some coking coal at the raw material end and the first - round price increase of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has slightly recovered. Currently, coking enterprises' profits are mostly on the verge of profit and loss, with stable operation and low inventory, but there is a lack of confidence in further price increases [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 32.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; bearish factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [10]. Price - Imported Coking Coal: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [11]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, with different grades and from different origins, are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [22]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [27]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [32]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].