Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. With domestic demand decreasing and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The analysis of various factors shows a mixed situation, with some factors being bullish and some bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be crude steel reduction policies in the market, while the trade war has eased. The situation is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831, with a basis of 27; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 846, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The situation is neutral [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has increased, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market. A high - level oscillation mindset is adopted [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - Import is at a loss [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - Other catalogs such as "Iron ore port spot price", "Iron ore futures - spot basis", "Iron ore import profit", "Iron ore shipping volume", "Iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory", "Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume", "Iron ore daily consumption", "Steel enterprise production situation", "Iron ore port daily average transaction and steel mill daily average hot metal" are listed, but no specific content for these catalogs is provided in the given text.
铁矿石早报（2025-10-14）-20251014
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-14 01:30