大越期货油脂早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 program is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk point is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views of Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8462, with a basis of 194, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9422, with a basis of - 58, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 206, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - 利空Factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].