Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy, considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, and increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but with potential policy - supported price increases from Indonesia [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term trade friction uncertainties and potential price - support policies from Indonesia [9] - For lead, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, with a potential weakening trend in the future [12] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price data shows changes in various indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 55 increase in spot premium and a 2926 increase in SHFE warehouse receipts [1] - Macro - level: Trump's tariff announcement led to a 4.5% drop in LME copper on Friday. The impact may be less than the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1] - Fundamental: Smelting production cuts exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase next week, leading to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the stability of copper cable production [1] Aluminum - Price data shows changes in aluminum prices, alumina prices, and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 190 decrease in the Shanghai aluminum ingot price [1] - Fundamental: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation due to the holiday effect. The global economic recovery and Fed's rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, causing a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1] Zinc - Price data shows changes in zinc prices, inventory, and other indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 100 decrease in the Shanghai zinc ingot price [2] - Supply: Domestic TC is decreasing, and imported TC is increasing. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end is slightly recovering in October [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Some overseas smelters face production difficulties due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. Due to increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - Price data shows changes in nickel - related prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 1300 decrease in the SHFE nickel spot price [3] - Fundamental: Pure nickel production remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is stable domestically but increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] - News: The protests in Indonesia have subsided, but there are still disturbances in the mining end, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices [4] Stainless Steel - Price data shows a decrease in stainless - steel prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 50 decrease in the 304 cold - rolled coil price [9] - Fundamental: Steel mills' production in October is slightly increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable, and inventory has increased during the holiday [9] - Policy: There is potential price - support from Indonesian policies, and trade friction uncertainties have increased [9] Lead - Price data shows changes in lead - related prices and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 9293 decrease in the SHFE inventory [12] - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The primary lead production may decrease partially, and the recycled lead production will increase, with a total increase of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12] - Demand: The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day holiday, the demand may weaken [12] - Price forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 and 17,400 next week and may weaken in the future [12] Tin - Price data shows changes in tin - related indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 4990 decrease in the tin position [15] - Supply: The processing fee of tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October, and Indonesian exports have resumed [15] - Demand: The solder market has slightly recovered during the peak season. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level [15] - Strategy: Follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] Industrial Silicon - Price data shows changes in industrial - silicon - related basis and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 120 decrease in the 421 Yunnan basis [16] - Supply: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. There is a strong expectation of production cuts in November [16] - Outlook: The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - Price data shows changes in lithium - carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 450 decrease in the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price [16] - Supply: Overseas mines are reluctant to lower prices, and traders are reluctant to sell. Salt plants are less willing to accept high - priced lithium ore [16] - Demand: The pre - holiday inventory - building has almost ended. The spot basis is weak, and most transactions are at a discount [16] - Outlook: The price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16]
永安期货有色早报-20251014
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-14 01:27