大越期货豆粕早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For Soybean Meal (M2601): It is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, high imports of soybeans in October and spot price discounts suppress the futures price, but the variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas supports the bottom of the market. Overall, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - For Soybeans (A2601): It is predicted to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Similar to soybean meal, the US soybean market has uncertainties. In the domestic market, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the market. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a standstill, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China in October remains at a relatively high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean market is in a critical period affected by US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. Soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, which weakens the demand for soybean meal in October, suppressing the price. However, due to the uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is still in a range - bound pattern [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still the possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for clear information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - Bearish Factors: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal Transaction Data: From September 25 to October 13, the transaction price of soybean meal was between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 504 yuan/ton [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From September 25 to October 13, the price of soybean meal futures (M2601) was between 2922 - 2967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was between 2880 - 2910 yuan/ton. The price of soybean futures (A2601) on October 13 was 3967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4100 yuan/ton [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From September 23 to October 13, the soybean (A) warehouse receipts decreased from 7606 to 7090, the soybean (B) warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 600, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 39055 to 41285 [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the overall supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the production situation in different regions [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data, which have an important impact on the soybean market [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content