永安期货集运早报-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current EC is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to the expectation of spot price cuts, geopolitical relaxation, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, the market sentiment may be weak. Considering the remaining expectations of the subsequent peak season and long - term contract signing season, opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 on dips can be focused on [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 with a 0.74% increase, a basis of - 97.6, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a decrease of 2204. For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 with a 0.54% decrease, a basis of - 530.7, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with an increase of 715. For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 with a 1.64% increase, a basis of - 328.1, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a decrease of 392. For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 with a 2.76% increase, a basis of - 66.7, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a decrease of 133. For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 with a 1.55% increase, a basis of - 236.2, and an open interest of 1483 with a decrease of 33 [2][16] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 433.1, with a daily increase of 16.8 and a weekly increase of 188.2. The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 202.6, with a daily decrease of 30.4 and a weekly increase of 113.5 [2][16] Spot Market - The现货 price of ડેલનીટ on October 13, 2025, was 1031.8, with a 1.40% decrease from the previous period and a 6.60% decrease in the last period. The SCFI was 1068 dollars/TEU on October 10, 2025, with a 9.99% increase from the previous period. The CCFI was 1287.15 points on October 10, 2025, with an 8.19% decrease from the previous period. The NCFI was 698.67 points on October 10, 2025, with an 11.39% increase from the previous period [2][16] Recent European Line Quotations - From Week 40 - 41, the two - week joint cabin release had an average quote of 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk), with YML at 1300 dollars (the lowest price of the year) and OA at 1400 - 1600 dollars. In Week 42, the price was announced to rise to 1800 - 2000 dollars, and the booking window had not arrived, so the quotes were not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted 1200 dollars in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarders still quoted 1500 - 1600 dollars. In November, MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the disk [3][17] Related News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli hostages. On October 14, the Gaza cease - fire agreement was signed in Egypt. The "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh was hosted by the Egyptian President and the US President, but the Israeli Prime Minister cancelled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [4][18]