沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy and try shorting at high prices for the 2511 contract [2]. - 不锈钢: The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - Nickel: On October 13, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,410 yuan, down 770 yuan from October 10; the price of LME nickel was 15,180 dollars, down 35 dollars. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan, down 1400 yuan [13]. - Stainless Steel: On October 13, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,655 yuan, down 150 yuan from October 10. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,850 yuan, down 100 yuan [13]. 3.2 Inventory Information - Nickel: As of October 13, LME nickel inventory was 242,094 tons, an increase of 4716 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,272 tons, an increase of 44 tons [16]. - Stainless Steel: As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,700 tons. As of October 13, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 85,166 tons, a decrease of 1088 tons [20][21]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel - Nickel Ore: On October 13, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, with no change compared to October 10 [24]. - Ferronickel: On October 13, the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 951.5 yuan per nickel point, down 3 yuan from October 10; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3400 yuan per ton, with no change [24]. 3.4 Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,042 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,292 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel ferronickel + pure nickel was 16,828 yuan [26]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 122,210 yuan per ton [29]. 3.6 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, anti - involution policies, and strong ore prices with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [7]. - Negative Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries [7].