大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][13]. - It is expected that in the next month, the supply of lithium carbonate will increase, with the production volume forecasted to rise by 3.01% and the import volume by 10.00%, while the demand will strengthen and inventory may decrease [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,280 - 73,280 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the forecast for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and the forecast for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of the iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of the ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 73,403 yuan/ton, a 0.90% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 1,368 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 76,101 yuan/ton, a 1.34% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 6,050 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Comprehensive Evaluation: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish [8][10]. - Leveraging Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a week - on - week decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.61% to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene (6%) price decreased by 1.19% to 829 US dollars/ton [14]. - Supply - Demand Data: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, the monthly production increased, the monthly export decreased, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 1.48% to 134,801 tons [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. For example, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines in 2025 showed different levels in different months [25]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated over time [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in some periods [31]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends. For example, the total monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased in some periods [40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Materials: The cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide produced from different materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was in a loss state [45]. - Processing and Recycling Costs: The processing costs of different materials and the cost - profit of recycling production also showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Production and Sales: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased [57]. - Cost and Price: The cost and price of lithium battery cells also showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors of different series showed different levels [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price and cost - profit of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials of different series showed different levels [68]. - Production and Inventory: The production and inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price and cost - profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium showed different levels [72]. - Production and Inventory: The production and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [80]. - Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles also showed different trends [81][84].