大越期货白糖早报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of sugar is weak, and the intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset. The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. This situation is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 380 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear but leaning towards bearish [6]. - Expectation: The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom. With new sugar about to be listed in large quantities and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, and intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset [5][6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Production Forecast: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Green Pool expected a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 billion tons; USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons; SCA Brasil predicted a sugar production of 39.1 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season; Conab predicted a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast [4][9]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: In 2025, the import tariff of sugar syrup increased. From January 1, 2025, the tariff of imported sugar syrup and premixes was adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a shrinking gap in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is close to 6,000 yuan [9]. - Consumption and Inventory: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. The industrial inventory at the end of August was 1.16 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.