大越期货沥青期货早报-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - The demand side: The current demand for various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level, and the overall demand recovery in the peak season is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries increased, the asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3281 - 3323 [8]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [8][10][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 618000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 625000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. The refineries have reduced production recently, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The construction rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Other aspects: The basis is 178 yuan/ton on October 13, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the social inventory decreased by 1.30% month - on - month, the factory inventory increased by 6.48% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 7.69% month - on - month; the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20; the main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of various asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased. The social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [15]. - Price and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17][18]. - Contract Spread: The report presents the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [20][21]. - Price Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios among asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [30][32]. - Fundamental Analysis - Profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - Supply - side: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, port inventory of diluted asphalt, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, production volume of Venezuelan crude oil, production volume of local refinery asphalt, construction rate, and device maintenance loss [41][43][46][50][53][56][59]. - Inventory: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of factory inventory [62][66][69]. - Import and Export: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [72][75][77]. - Demand - side: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and sales of related machinery), asphalt construction rate, and downstream construction conditions [78][81][84][88][93][96][97]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory of diluted asphalt, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [102][103].