建信期货国债日报-20251014

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the sentiment in the bond market remained weak. [11] - In October, the bond market may face a situation of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus potentially boosting credit expansion expectations, the resurgence of anti - involution, and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Positives may include economic data slowdown, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to implement. [11][12] - In October, after the negatives are gradually digested, the bond market is expected to stabilize. However, a rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations, which could be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deterioration in trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Due to the escalation of Sino - US frictions over the weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment was boosted, and treasury bond futures opened higher and rose in the morning session. In the afternoon, as the A - share market recovered, the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed. [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities increased, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term maturities, mostly around 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.759%, up 1.6bp. [9] - At the beginning of the month, the funds were stable and abundant. There were no reverse - repurchase maturities today, and the central bank injected 137.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, and short - term fund rates showed mixed movements. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.5bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 3bp to 1.61% compared with last weekend. [10] 3.1.2 Conclusion - The bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are digested. The rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations. It is recommended to wait for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items, stating that it is a proper measure to improve the export - control system in accordance with laws and regulations. [13] - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, including charging special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, aiming to maintain a fair competition environment in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets. [13] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation regarding Trump's latest tariff threat, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China. [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months, and he is open to a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in future meetings. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that labor - market weakness and inflation slowdown led to the interest - rate cut last month and signaled possible further cuts. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on October 13, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - Money Market: It includes information on the SHIBOR term - structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged - repurchase weighted - rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase rate change. [29][33] - Derivatives Market: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) is provided. [35]