建信期货工业硅日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price opened low and closed high. Short - term macro risks had a limited impact. The futures market had little difference in expectations, and the basis had been at par recently. The market would continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply pressure remained high, demand had no significant increase, and the policy was in a vacuum period. Future support mainly relied on southwest production cuts and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The industrial silicon futures price opened low and closed high. The Si2511 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The trading volume was 241,553 lots, and the open interest was 165,722 lots, with a net decrease of 1,313 lots [4]. - Spot Prices: The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9250 yuan/ton, and 8900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang was 9550 yuan/ton, and 9950 yuan/ton in Sichuan [4]. - Future Outlook: The spot market was in a stalemate. The supply pressure remained high, with the weekly output in October staying at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with monthly demands of 148,000 tons for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloys. The market had no inventory - reduction drive. The market would continue to fluctuate within the current range in the short term [4]. 3.2 Market News - On October 13, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,854 lots, a net increase of 573 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In August 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and an 18% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 491,400 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase [5]. - The average spot price of the domestic polysilicon market was 47,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The polysilicon market was in a stage of game between supply - demand imbalance and policy intervention, with high inventory pressure, lower - than - expected production cuts, difficult price transmission downstream, and a light trading atmosphere. It was expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with the average price of P - type silicon materials remaining around 44,000 yuan/ton and N - type materials between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [5].