大越期货PVC期货早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4690 - 4752. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [8][10][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [8] - Demand: The overall downstream开工率 was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.000 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand is close to the historical average [8] - Cost: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2403.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.10%, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - Other Factors: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. On October 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides data on yesterday's PVC market, including enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, cost, capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory, etc., showing various changes in prices, production, and inventory compared with the previous period [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - price Trend: Displays the historical trends of the base price, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract from 2022 to 2025 [18] - Futures Price and Volume: Presents the trends of the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume of the main PVC futures contract from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - Spread Analysis: Shows the historical trends of the spreads of the main PVC futures contract from 2024 to 2025 [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and开工率 of materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impacts on PVC production [27][30][32][34] - Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC, showing the supply situation of PVC [39][41] - Demand Trend: Analyzes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different PVC products, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][52][54] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social warehouses, as well as the number of days of enterprise inventory [57] - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads related to the ethylene method [59] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62]