工业硅期货早报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the industrial silicon market shows a complex pattern with factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and inventory fluctuations. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, with cost support on the one hand and sluggish demand on the other [6][10][11]. - The polycrystalline silicon market also faces a similar situation, with supply - demand mismatches and cost - profit relationships influencing its price trends. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 430% increase compared to the previous period [6]. - Demand: The demand was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% decrease compared to the previous period, and the demand remained sluggish [6]. - Inventory: Polycrystalline silicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level; silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,700 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 13, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 495 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Market Outlook: The supply schedule is increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,670 - 8,940 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous period. The scheduled output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.83 GW, a 6.89% decrease compared to the previous period, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 7.83% increase compared to the previous period. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polycrystalline silicon N - type material in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: The N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton on October 13, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,010 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Market Outlook: The supply schedule will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47,805 - 49,675 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of changes, with some contracts rising and some remaining unchanged [14]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly sample enterprise inventory was 167,850 tons, a 3.29% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly major port inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons [14]. - Output: The weekly sample enterprise output was 46,910 tons, an 8.31% increase compared to the previous period [14]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of different regions and specifications of industrial silicon showed different trends, with some in a loss state [14]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Price: The prices of various contracts of polycrystalline silicon showed different degrees of decline, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous period [16]. - Output: The monthly output of polycrystalline silicon was 131,700 tons, a 23.89% increase compared to the previous period [16].