大越期货菜粕早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is in a neutral state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral, with short - term demand in the peak season, low inventory, but uncertainties in future demand and trade [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports in China and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The main logic of the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From September 25 to October 13, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 449 yuan/ton to 504 yuan/ton [13]. - Price Data: From September 25 to October 13, the price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract fluctuated between 2391 - 2444 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2605 contract fluctuated between 2315 - 2343 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From September 23 to October 13, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9245 to 9089 [17]. - Production and Inventory Data: The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, but the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [23][25][27][35]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report.