集运早报-20251014

Report Overview - Report Name: "集运星报" [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current situation is characterized by a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with significant fluctuations influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to spot price reduction expectations, geopolitical easing, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, market sentiment may be weak. However, considering the expected peak season and long - term contract signing season, there may be opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 at low prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Closed at 1129.4 yesterday, with a change of 0.74%, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a change of - 2204 [2]. - EC2512: Closed at 1562.5, with a change of - 0.54%, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with a change of 715 [2]. - EC2602: Closed at 1359.9, with a change of 1.64%, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a change of - 392 [2]. - EC2604: Closed at 1098.5, with a change of 2.76%, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a change of - 133 [2]. - EC2606: Closed at 1268.0, with a change of 1.55%, trading volume of 283, and an open interest of 1483 with a change of - 33 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 433.1, with a daily change of 16.8 and a weekly change of 188.2 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 202.6, with a daily change of - 30.4 and a weekly change of 113.5 [2]. Spot Market Indicators - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.8 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from two periods ago [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was $1068/TEU, an increase of 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, a decrease of 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - NCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, an increase of 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - Week 40 - 41: Two - week joint cabin release. The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted $1400; PA quoted between $1300 - 1500; YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year; OA quoted between $1400 - 1600 [2]. - Week 42: The price was announced to increase to $1800 - 2000. As of the weekend, it was not the booking window, and the quotation was not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted $1200 in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarder still quoted between $1500 - 1600 [2]. - November Price Increase Announcement: MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market [2]. News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli detainees. On October 14, a cease - fire agreement for Gaza was signed in Egypt. The Sharm El - Sheikh "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [3].