Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are affected by multiple factors. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market in the short term, but the recovery of ship - owner procurement activities in the North Asian market after the long - holiday is expected to boost downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiries. - The current situation of the fuel oil market is complex, with a mix of long and short factors. The inventory in Singapore decreased in the week of October 8, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions have different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. - The market sentiment is stable overnight. OPEC + increased production steadily in September, and there is no new news of energy sanctions on Russia for now. The demand side still faces pressure, and the shipping demand for fuel oil is weak in the short term. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges: FU2601 between 2710 - 2760 and LU2511 between 3200 - 3250 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market, but downstream inquiries are expected to rise. The basis is neutral as the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 164 barrels to 2061.9 barrels in the week of October 8, which is positive. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is negative. The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short (with short positions decreasing), and for low - sulfur fuel oil, the main positions changed from short to long, both being negative. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate in the ranges of 2710 - 2760 and 3200 - 3250 respectively [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - The driving force of the market is the resonance between the supply affected by geopolitical risks and the neutral demand. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC + internal unity and the escalation of war. The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there are potential negative factors such as the possible intensification of sanctions on Russia and the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The prices of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are 382.29 dollars/ton and 452.5 dollars/ton respectively, with the basis of 37 yuan/ton and 24 yuan/ton. The spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore on October 8 was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil shows that on October 8, the inventory was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated from July 30 to October 8, with some weeks showing increases and others showing decreases [3][8].
2025-10-14燃料油早报-20251014
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-14 02:31