大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251014

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish. The macro - manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the risk of Sino - US trade disputes has increased again. It is expected that the prices of both will fluctuate weakly today [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The number of plant overhauls decreased, production increased, the operation of agricultural film production was stable, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 7020 (-60), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.2%, neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of agricultural film production, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [5] - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The supply of goods is abundant recently, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6760 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 38, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.6%, bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), bearish [6] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming into operation, stable average downstream operating rate, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [7] - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - LLDPE Spot and Futures: The spot price of the delivery product is 7020, the price of the 01 contract is 7037, the basis is - 17, the import price in US dollars is 831, the import conversion price is 7275, and the import price difference is - 255 [8] - PP Spot and Futures: The spot price of the delivery product is 6760, the price of the 01 contract is 6722, the basis is 38, the import price in US dollars is 830, the import conversion price is 7267, and the import price difference is - 507 [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]